It was curious to see Folha publish the “news” that Donald Trump’s attacks on Brazil had not impacted the Lula administration’s approval ratings, when all polling institutes had said the exact opposite. This includes Datafolha, which is the Folha group’s own polling institute. While the overall approval of the Lula government remained stable in this latest Datafolha poll, the survey on voting intentions for 2026 shows a noticeable improvement in the president’s performance. The most recent poll on the 2026 presidential succession brought two key pieces of information: 1) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advance in the first round and 2) the widening distance separating him from Jair Bolsonaro and Tarcísio, his most competitive opponents, in second-round scenarios.
In the first-round panel that includes Bolsonaro, Ratinho Junior, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, Lula rose from 36% to 39%, while the former president dropped from 35% to 33%. The six-point difference is the largest registered since the beginning of the year and shows that the Workers’ Party candidate has regained momentum.
In the second round, the movement is repeated. Lula reaches 47% against Bolsonaro’s 43%, recovering some of the ground lost in June and re-establishing a four-point margin, which is at the limit of the margin of error.
Against Tarcísio de Freitas, the curve is also upward: 45% to 41% for the president, following a technical tie in the previous survey. Although there is still a statistical tie, the probability of Lula leading has once again become the highest among all tested matchups.
This advance is sustained by social groups already identified as decisive in 2022, but which now show expanded loyalty. Among voters aged 60 or older, Lula reaches 46%, nineteen points ahead of Bolsonaro.
In the basic education bracket, the advantage is even more expressive: 48% to 24%. Among families living on up to two minimum wages, the Workers’ Party candidate registers 44%, surpassing the former president by thirteen points.
The geography of the vote shows an equally favorable scenario. In the Northeast, a historical Workers’ Party stronghold, the president reaches 53% against Bolsonaro’s 25%, a 28-point difference that practically neutralizes the opponent’s performance in the South, the only region where the former president leads. In the religious breakdown, Lula maintains 44% among Catholics, seventeen points ahead of his rival; however, among Evangelicals, he continues to be at a disadvantage (24% to 52%), a sign that the government’s camp still needs to close the gap in this electorate.
Another indicator of strength is the performance among those who classify the government as regular, a group that comprises 29% of the electorate. In this segment, Lula opened a 20-point lead (40% to 20%), reversing the tie seen in June. This recovery suggests a positive effect from recent economic measures and communication actions from the presidential palace, although the poll does not investigate causality. Among those who approve of the government, the spontaneous mention of the president as a candidate rose from 48% to 58%, revealing superior engagement compared to what was observed in the first half of the year.
When Bolsonaro is replaced by Tarcísio, Michelle, Eduardo, or Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula maintains a comfortable lead. Against the São Paulo governor, he leads by 38% to 21% in the first round; against Michelle, by 39% to 24%. In second-round simulations, the margins vary from nine to twelve points. The pro-Bolsonaro camp, therefore, shows difficulty in fully transferring the former president’s political capital to other names, a phenomenon that directly benefits the chief executive.
Rejection, however, remains high. Almost half of the electorate (47%) declares they would “absolutely not” vote for Lula, a percentage similar to that attributed to Bolsonaro (44%). Still, 61% of respondents reject candidates who promise to grant amnesty to the former president for the acts of January 8, a position held by a majority among women, Catholics, and low-income voters. This data indicates an unfavorable environment for rhetoric that downplays the judicial accountability of pro-Bolsonaro allies.
Among higher-income strata, the Workers’ Party candidate continues to be on hostile ground. In the five-to-ten minimum wage bracket, Bolsonaro leads by 41% to 26%; above that level, the distance increases to 50% to 31%. This pocket of resistance, associated with a more conservative Evangelical electorate, currently constitutes the main strategic challenge for the government’s campaign.
In summary, Lula ends July consolidated in the lead, anchored by strong popular support among lower-income groups, in the Northeast, and among Catholics, and supported by a recovery among voters who consider his government to be regular. The dispute remains open, but for the first time since April, the president combines numerical growth and a minimal safety margin over all tested opponents, signaling that he enters the second half of the year with the clock in his favor.
