A new AtlasIntel poll, conducted between August 25 and 29, 2025, with 2,001 respondents in Rio de Janeiro, reveals a challenging scenario for the main names of the “Frente Ampla Democrática” (Broad Democratic Front) in the state. Although Eduardo Paes maintains the lead for governor and Lula for president, both face tight races in 2026. For the state government, Eduardo Paes appears with 40% of the vote intention in the most difficult scenario, with the presence of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the running, who is close behind him with 32.8% – a difference of only 7.2 percentage points that practically guarantees a second round. In the presidential race, the situation is even tighter: Lula leads with 35%, but Tarcísio de Freitas appears with 33.5%, a difference of only 1.5 points that makes Rio de Janeiro one of the states where there will be the most competition in the national election.
Rio de Janeiro, with about 13.5 million voters – approximately 8.5% of the national electorate – will be strategic for Lula’s ambitions in 2026. As the presidential elections may be tight, just as they were in 2022, the state could represent the deciding factor in the national dispute. Just as Lula’s advance in the city of São Paulo in 2022 was crucial for his victory, a similar advance by the president in the capital and the metropolitan region will be extremely valuable to guarantee a potential re-election. A defeat in Rio – where Bolsonaro won in the last two presidential elections – would seriously compromise the Workers’ Party’s (PT) chances.
For Eduardo Paes, the race represents an opportunity to consolidate his national projection, but in a much more competitive scenario than his recent municipal victories suggested. Lula still faces rejection, but the PT has grown in the state. Lula’s main challenge in Rio de Janeiro is evident in the approval numbers: only 39% approve of his government against 57% who disapprove, a negative balance of 18 percentage points that puts him “underwater” in the state. Even more worrying is that Jair Bolsonaro maintains a 46% positive image in Rio, surpassing Lula by 7 percentage points – an indicator of the persistent strength of Bolsonarism in Rio.
However, it is important to recognize that the PT has grown significantly in the state between the last two presidential elections. In 2018, Haddad obtained only 32.05% in the state and 35.43% in the capital. In 2022, Lula managed 43.47% in the state and 47.34% in the capital – a growth of more than 11 percentage points in the state and almost 12 points in the capital, demonstrating an upward trajectory that can be strengthened. The challenge becomes even greater when we analyze the main cities in the state. In Baixada Fluminense, a crucial region for any state victory, Lula had an insufficient performance in 2022: São Gonçalo 44.86% against 55.14% for Bolsonaro, Duque de Caxias 42.05% against 57.95% for Bolsonaro and Nova Iguaçu only 37.03% against 62.97% for Bolsonaro. Only in Niterói did the PT member manage to win, with 51.27% against 48.73% for Bolsonaro, showing that his base is concentrated in areas of higher income and education.
To make a national victory viable in 2026, Lula will not only need to maintain his bases in the capital – where he has a strategic alliance with Eduardo Paes – but also significantly expand his penetration in Baixada Fluminense and the interior. The partnership with Eduardo Paes can be fundamental in this process: the mayor, who grew from 37% in 2020 to more than 60% in 2024, can help build a positive electoral chemistry that, if successful, can result in a great vote for both in 2026. This alliance represents a unique opportunity to combine Lula’s national experience with Paes’ local popularity.
Eduardo Paes leads, but without comfort
Eduardo Paes arrives in 2026 in an apparently privileged position, but one that hides significant challenges. In the first scenario tested by the poll, with less competitive candidates, he appears with 43.9% of the vote intention. However, when Flávio Bolsonaro enters the race – the most competitive scenario – his lead is reduced to 40% against 32.8% of the Bolsonarist senator. This difference of 7.2 percentage points, although significant, is far from guaranteeing a tranquil victory.
Flávio Bolsonaro demonstrates strength in specific but important segments of the electorate: he has 59.5% preference among evangelicals, leads among the youngest and, curiously, has significant penetration among the popular classes – a phenomenon that goes against national patterns where Bolsonarism is stronger among the middle classes. Eduardo Paes’ trump card is the transfer of votes: 78% of voters who voted for Lula in 2022 declare their intention to vote for the mayor, consolidating a strategic alliance of the Broad Democratic Front – a movement that should bring together leaders from various distinct ideological fields in 2026 under the common denominator of defending democracy, institutions, national sovereignty and, above all, an opposition to Bolsonarism and the far right. In addition, he comes from an impressive upward trajectory: he grew from 37.01% in 2020 to 60.47% in 2024 in the municipal election in the capital.
However, the challenge will be to maintain this broad coalition in a scenario of growing polarization. Eduardo Paes will need to balance his alliance with Lula – fundamental for his electoral base – with the need to attract center voters dissatisfied with both extremes of national polarization.
Opportunity in the Castro government crisis
Paradoxically, the greatest opportunity for both Lula and Eduardo Paes may be in the serious crisis of the current state government. Cláudio Castro has an approval rating of only 29% against 64% rejection, a negative balance of 35 percentage points that makes him one of the most rejected governors in the country. This rejection is reflected in the general mood of the population of Rio: 75% believe that Rio de Janeiro is on the “wrong path” – an even more serious percentage than the national evaluation, where 55% have a negative perception. Even more revealing is that 74% of voters prefer “someone who manages differently from the current one,” creating a favorable environment for opposition candidates.
The main problem identified by the people of Rio is criminality, pointed out by 93% of respondents, evidencing the failure of the Castro government’s public security policies.
The economic situation is also worrying: 78% consider the state’s economic situation to be bad, creating a scenario of generalized dissatisfaction. Eduardo Paes’ strategy will be clear: to position himself as the “anti-Cláudio Castro,” taking advantage of the current governor’s wear and tear to present himself as the necessary change. For Lula, the opportunity is to associate his candidacy with the need for change in the state, overcoming his personal rejection through a proposal for political renewal in Rio. The great challenge for the right will be precisely to disassociate itself from the image of Castro. Flávio Bolsonaro and other conservative candidates will need to demonstrate that they represent a renewed right, distant from the problems of the current state government – a complex task considering the existing political connections.
Data reveals persistent polarization
The analysis of the stratified data reveals electoral patterns that confirm the persistent polarization in the state. Bolsonarism in Rio has peculiar characteristics: contrary to the national pattern, where it is stronger among the middle classes, in Rio de Janeiro it shows significant penetration among the popular classes, especially among evangelicals and young people. Eduardo Paes, in turn, has an electoral profile closer to Lula’s: strong among women, older age groups, higher education and income. This overlap of electoral bases explains the strategic alliance between them, but also reveals their mutual dependence on mobilizing their respective electorates. In the Senate race, fragmentation is even greater: Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 23%, followed by Benedita da Silva (PT) with 17% and Alessandro Molon (PSB) with 16%. The state’s economic situation – considered bad by 78% of respondents – adds an important variable: economically dissatisfied voters may be more volatile, creating opportunities for both proposals for change and populist speeches of different kinds.
The AtlasIntel poll confirms that the feeling of change dominates the electorate of Rio, creating opportunities for those who can position themselves more convincingly as an alternative to the status quo.
