While Brazil registers the lowest unemployment rate since 2012, at 5.8% in the second quarter of 2025, and still sees food inflation fall, the United States is going through a scenario of reversal. The country, which bet on tariffs as an economic and political instrument, now faces higher costs, less dynamism, and a shrinking job market.
Fewer job openings than unemployed people In July, the number of open jobs in the US fell to 7.18 million, down from 7.36 million the previous month and below economists’ expectations of 7.37 million. At the same time, the total number of unemployed people reached 7.2 million. This means that, for the first time since April 2021, there were more people looking for work than available jobs.
This is a negative milestone: the country has stopped just cooling down hiring and has started to register a net destruction of jobs. These numbers come from the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report, a monthly survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that measures job openings, hires, and layoffs to evaluate the dynamics of the labor market. The result shows that the American market has lost its “healthy turnover”: stagnant hires, low layoff levels, but no creation of new opportunities.
The effect is a “frozen” labor market, with no room for mobility, wage increases, or innovation. Producer inflation on the rise The situation is aggravated by rising costs. In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) — an index that measures producer inflation — rose 0.9% compared to the previous month, the highest increase in more than two years.
With tariffs making inputs and raw materials more expensive, companies are under more pressure and less willing to hire, feeding the cycle of stagnation. The contrast with Brazil In Brazil, the movement is the opposite. Although the creation of formal jobs slowed down in July — 129,775 openings, a decrease of 32.2% compared to the same month in 2024 — there remains a positive balance of more than 1.3 million new jobs in the semester.
In addition, inflation shows signs of relief. The August preview (IPCA-15) registered a deflation of -0.14%, driven by significant drops in food and beverages. Rice, meat, potatoes, tomatoes, and onions became cheaper, increasing the purchasing power of the population.
The ironic side The ironic side is that tariffs were used by the United States as an instrument of coercion and blackmail against countries like Brazil, in an attempt to impose submission and even interfere in its judicial independence. But the practical consequence was to harm the Americans themselves: rising inflation, falling jobs, and a paralyzed labor market. In Brazil, the exact opposite is happening — a drop in inflation, especially in food, and a net generation of jobs.
