Miscalculation?

The Rogue Superpower and the Genocidal State attack Iran.

By Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr.

Newspaper, magazine and internet columnists often complain about the
lack of subject matter or the difficulty of saying new things about burning topics.
Dostoevsky and Nelson Rodrigues, two of the greatest columnists of all time,
complained about it from time to time. Dostoevsky in particular expressed, with
humor and verve, the banality of what was published and the enormous effort
required to say what he called “a new word”. And he transformed this into the
subject of chronicles and columns.

With the outbreak of the criminal war against Iran, waged by the delinquent
superpower, the United States, and the genocidal state of Israel, we do not suffer
from lack of subject matter, on the contrary. “May you live in interesting times”, is
an ancient curse that remains true (even if worn out by overuse). However, the
difficulty of adding something original persists. If the Russian genius faced this
drama, imagine what happens to modest columnists like me.

But let’s go. I start with the children, remembering the appalling bombing of
a girls’ school in Iran, which killed more than 160 people. From the suffering of
children, Dostoevsky wrote, one can derive the absurdity of all historical reality.
Despite everything, he believed in God. In my most recent book, “Estilhaços”, I
went further, saying that “the suffering of children not only belies the existence of
God, but proves that of the Devil.”

These days, the Devil takes the form of Donald Trump and Benjamin
Netanyahu. Time will tell, but it seems that the diabolical duo made a gigantic
miscalculation. Or would it be better to reverse the order and write Netanyahu and
Trump? Since at the helm of this aggression are Israel and the powerful Zionist
lobby in Washington and New York, as the US Foreign Minister Marco Rubio has
clumsily revealed. This is what this mindless man said to justify the aggression
against Iran: “There was an imminent threat to the U.S. (…) “We knew that if Iran
was attacked by Israel, they would immediately attack us.” According to him, the
Trump administration acted “proactively” and “defensively” in attacking Iran. It
seems clear that Israel is the one calling the shots, defining the timing of the
attack.

Maybe I’m exaggerating a little. The United States has its own goals of
domination in the Middle East. Be that as it may, one thing is evident. Iran is a
tough nut to crack. It is not defenseless Palestine, subjected to destruction and
massacre by Israeli cowardice. It is not Lebanon, also defenseless and under
attack by Israel. It is not Syria, torn apart by US, Israeli and Turkish aggression. Nor
is it a Libya. Not even an Iraq. And it is not a Venezuela, which was easily subdued
by a lightning intervention by the United States.

Iran is a military power that has been able to impose heavy losses on
aggressors, including Arab satellites or allies of the United States and Israel in the
Persian Gulf. These Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain) host American military bases on their territory. From
these bases, attacks are made on Iran, which makes the territory of these
countries a legitimate target for the Iranians.

They also depend on the passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport
their oil and natural gas exports (of the five mentioned, only Saudi Arabia has other
channels). Iran has surgically closed this strait, except only for the ships of its
strategic allies – Russia and, above all, China. The other ships trying to pass are
being bombed.

An ancient and peaceful civilization, a great country

Iran is an ancient civilization. It is a country proud of its traditions. It was
never a colony, although it was subjected to a semi-colonial relationship at certain
periods by foreign powers, most notably England and the United States. Iran’s last
invasion of a country dates back to the 18th century.

Now, the Iranians were not attacking anyone, nor were they preparing to do
so. On the contrary, they were trying to find a negotiated solution with the United
States, when they were stabbed in the back.

One should not lose sight of the size of Iran. There are more than 90 million
Iranians, living in a territory larger than the combined territories of France, Spain,
Germany and Italy. Compare it with tiny Palestine, with a population of less than 6
million, a victim of genocide and ethnic cleansing practiced by Israel. Iran will not
be wiped off the map.

The Iranians have been preparing for decades for this confrontation.
Despite the sanctions applied by the United States for more than 40 years, with the
collaboration of other nations of the collective West, Iran has accumulated a great
capacity for retaliation, as we are seeing now. Iranian awareness that such
preparation was necessary dates back to 1980, when Iran was attacked by
Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (yes, himself!), armed and encouraged by the United States
and Israel. Iran was taken by surprise and realized that it was militarily vulnerable.
And it learned the right lesson, transforming itself into a military power.

Iran’s resistance and the country’s internal cohesion have only been
increased by the truly stupid decision by the United States and Israel to
assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei. An extraordinary leader was transformed into a
martyr and a symbol of Iranian resistance to the existential threat facing the
country. He behaved like a hero and will never be forgotten.

The truth is that the United States and Israel are profoundly sick societies.
Trump and Netanyahu express this disease. And these two countries have become
a threat to the others.

What does the diabolical duo want? The United States seeks to escape the
decline and shipwreck of civilization in the West. And they are willing to do
anything. They want to forcibly regain their increasingly contested world
hegemony. The ultimate target is China, “the most powerful country relative to us
since the 19th century,” as highlighted in the U.S. national defense strategy
document, released in January.

Israel, for its part, wants to carry forward the project of domination of the
Middle East. Only two major countries oppose this project – Iran and Turkey. If Iran
succumbs, Turkey is likely to be the next victim.

***

The author is an economist and writer. He was vice president of the New
Development Bank, established by the BRICS in Shanghai, from 2015 to 2017, and
executive director at the IMF for Brazil and 10 other countries in Washington, from
2007 to 2015. He published the book Estilhaços, Editora Contracorrente, in 2024.
E-mail: paulonbjr@hotmail.com
YouTube Channel: youtube.nogueirabatista.com.br
Portal: www.nogueirabatista.com.br