Brazil has just suffered one of the most treacherous attacks in its recent history. The President of the United States announced monstrous 50% tariffs against all Brazilian products, which could effectively mean a total embargo on trade between the two main countries in the Americas.
The trade flow between Brazil and the United States over the last 12 months (July 2024 to June 2025) was US$ 84.1 billion, representing 13.8% of Brazil’s total trade flow. Considering only Brazilian exports, Brazil exported US$ 41.2 billion to the United States in the last 12 months, which corresponds to 12.3% of Brazil’s total exports during the period.
As seen in the graph above, although Brazil has significantly reduced its dependence on the United States as a destination for its products over recent years, the American market is still very important for Brazil. Bilateral trade flow fluctuated between US$ 54 billion in 2021 and US$ 84.1 billion in 2025.
Key Products Exported by Brazil to the U.S.
The main products Brazil exports to the United States include crude petroleum oils (US$ 5.1 billion), semi-finished iron and steel products (US$ 3.8 billion), aircraft and equipment (US$ 2.8 billion), unroasted coffee (US$ 2.2 billion), pig iron and derivatives (US$ 1.8 billion), fuel oils (US$ 1.7 billion), cellulose (US$ 1.5 billion), fruit juices (US$ 1.5 billion), beef (US$ 1.4 billion), and civil engineering equipment (US$ 1.3 billion).
In the first two years of the current government (2023-2024), exports to the United States and the trade flow between the countries improved. Brazilian exports increased, and Brazil also bought more from the United States. This “tariff hike,” for example, will harm both countries, affecting both American exporters selling to the Brazilian market and Brazilian exporters selling to the American market. It’s a lose-lose situation.
Purely Political and Personal Reasons
The alleged reasons are purely political and, what’s worse, related to Brazil’s domestic internal politics. Trump is using his tariff-imposing prerogatives to try and interfere in a completely domestic matter about which he understands nothing, knows nothing, and has nothing to do with. This is an issue that Brazil will resolve internally.
Firstly, this demonstrates a great betrayal by the Brazilian right wing of Brazil’s national economic interests. It is evident that the Brazilian right wing is anti-national, attempting to use a purely domestic issue that we can resolve internally to provoke a trade embargo that could harm the Brazilian economy.
However, fortunately, Brazil today is not the Brazil of old. Brazil today has a highly diversified trade flow with other countries. The United States, though important, does not represent an existential dependence for Brazil. Our trade relationship is balanced – Brazil actually has a deficit with the United States; we buy more American products than we sell to them.
The United States Stands to Lose
Brazil can buy these American products elsewhere. Therefore, it will be the United States that loses, and they will lose doubly. Due to this disproportionate measure, Americans will lose doubly.
First, they will lose the Brazilian market, because with this tariff against Brazilian products, Brazil will likely reduce its purchases from the United States. Americans will stop selling to Brazil.
Second, the Brazilian products that were going to the United States – important products that Americans appreciate – will also stop going or have their supply reduced. American consumers will pay for this with higher prices and lower availability of these products.
An Act of Complete Insanity
This is yet another act of complete insanity by Trump. We hope that political operators and American businesses have the minimum common sense and dignity to confront this, because it’s clear that such a measure is not in the interest of the United States. It is total madness and an affront to international trade law.
The most pathetic part is that Trump initiated this tariff hike claiming trade deficits with other countries, but now he has started to use tariffs simply for purely political and personal reasons. As he himself declared: “I have a great relationship with Bolsonaro.” But what does that have to do with trade between two countries?
Bilateral Trade Data
The numbers show the importance and balance of the trade relationship between the two countries:
Brazil-U.S. Trade Flow (Accumulated 12 months – July to June):
- 2019: US$ 63.7 billion
- 2020: US$ 58.9 billion
- 2021: US$ 54.0 billion
- 2022: US$ 83.4 billion
- 2023: US$ 82.9 billion
- 2024: US$ 76.7 billion
- 2025: US$ 84.1 billion
Brazil-U.S. Trade Balance (Accumulated 12 months – July to June):
- 2019: -US$ 3.1 billion (Brazilian deficit)
- 2020: -US$ 8.9 billion (Brazilian deficit)
- 2021: -US$ 4.4 billion (Brazilian deficit)
- 2022: -US$ 12.6 billion (Brazilian deficit)
- 2023: -US$ 8.9 billion (Brazilian deficit)
- 2024: +US$ 1.1 billion (Brazilian surplus)
- 2025: -US$ 1.7 billion (Brazilian deficit)
U.S. Share of Brazilian Exports:
- 2019: 13.3%
- 2020: 11.7%
- 2021: 10.2%
- 2022: 11.5%
- 2023: 11.0%
- 2024: 11.4%
- 2025: 12.3%
As the data show, Brazil historically buys more from the United States than it sells to them, characterizing a balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship. The tariffs announced by Trump represent not only an attack on Brazil but also a self-inflicted wound on the American economy.
