The disastrous police operation in Rio de Janeiro, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of people, including four police officers, and paralyzed the city, was an attempt by the far-right to “jump the gun” for 2026. Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) and his Bolsonarist allies tried to create a “political event” to wear down the Lula government, but the shot backfired.
The objective was clear: to use the chaos in public security to sell the narrative that the federal government is “negligent” and that only the “mão dura” (read: authoritarian violence) can solve the problem. It is the old tactic of creating the problem and then presenting oneself as the solution.
The problem is that they “jumped the gun.” They did it too soon. The disaster was so evident, Castro’s incompetence so glaring, and the lie about the “lack of federal aid” so quickly debunked by Minister Ricardo Lewandowski, that public opinion did not buy the farce.
Instead of wearing down Lula, the crisis exposed the total irresponsibility of Bolsonarism in managing security. They showed they are willing to set Rio de Janeiro on fire (literally) for a power project.
Federal Deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG), one of Bolsonarism’s spokesmen, went on X (formerly Twitter) and posted a photo of prisoners in El Salvador, saying he would turn Brazil into a “great El Salvador.”
This post was the perfect “ato falho.” It revealed the authoritarian project they have for Brazil: a model of mass repression, without constitutional guarantees, that treats poverty as a police matter. By “jumping the gun,” they not only failed to create the desired political crisis, but they also brought forward—to society—the debate they only wanted to have in 2026.
Now, the Lula government “has the knife and the cheese in hand.” It has the opportunity to use this crisis, caused by the opposition, to set its own public security agenda. The recreation of the Ministry of Public Security is one of the measures that is called for, to show society that the federal government is in command and has a rational project, not an electioneering spectacle.
The far-right shot itself in the foot. It gave the government time to organize, for the public debate to mature, and for society to realize that the “Bukele” model they so admire is not the solution, but rather part of the problem.
Notes for Readers:
- Cláudio Castro: The governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro.
- PL (Partido Liberal): The “Liberal Party,” which is the political party of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro.
- Bolsonarist / Bolsonarism: The political movement supporting Jair Bolsonaro.
- Lula: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the current President of Brazil, from the center-left.
- “Mão dura” (Hard hand): A Portuguese term for “iron fist” rule or a hardline, repressive approach, often associated with authoritarianism.
- Ricardo Lewandowski: Brazil’s Minister of Justice and Public Security.
- Nikolas Ferreira: A prominent, young far-right federal deputy and a staunch supporter of Bolsonaro.
- “Ato falho” (Freudian slip): A concept from psychoanalysis (a parapraxis) that has entered common Brazilian vocabulary to mean an unintentional error in speech or action that reveals one’s true, hidden thoughts or intentions.
- “Has the knife and the cheese in hand” (Ter a faca e o queijo na mão): A popular Brazilian idiom meaning to be in complete control of a situation or to have all the necessary tools and opportunity to succeed.
- Ministry of Public Security: The author is advocating for splitting the current “Ministry of Justice and Public Security” into two, creating a new, dedicated ministry just for public security to give the issue more political visibility.
- “Bukele” model: A reference to Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, who has gained global attention for his hardline, mass-incarceration policies against street gangs. This “Bukele model” is heavily praised by the Brazilian far-right as a potential solution for Brazil, a comparison the author rejects.
