Agência Brasil - EBC
By José Maurício Bustani and Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr.
We are currently living in a phase of immense risks worldwide. Not since the Second World War has such a dangerous geopolitical and military situation been seen.
The main source of instability, threats and aggression is well known. It would be a mistake, however, to attribute to Donald Trump the sole responsibility for what has been happening. If only we could only do it! But Trump is temporary. The problem is structural in nature and will therefore be more long-lasting.
The Imperial Tradition of the United States
Two observations. First, the American Empire has always been interventionist and violent. Its contempt for international law is not new and has been manifested in various forms, even in the leadership of international organizations when orchestrating the removal of the first Director-General of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). And the invasions of Iraq, Libya and Syria, among others, have always been based on trumped-up allegations, imposed on the rest of the world as truths.
Let us not forget that abuses and violence also occurred during Democratic administrations. The Empire does not give respite. In 1961, Eisenhower denounced the fearsome power of the “military-industrial complex”. More recently, the expression “Deep State” has come into widespread use to designate the power structure that consists of the State Department, the Pentagon, the FBI, the CIA, the corporate press, and powerful financial groups. The Deep State acts under any presidency and, in fact, has maneuvered the helm of Clinton, Obama and Biden, as much as that of Republican presidents. And not even the ideas originally proposed in Trump’s MAGA seem to be able to survive the empire of such a powerful engine.
Before Trump, however, imperial action was protected by layers of rhetoric and hypocrisy — the hypocrisy that, as La Rochefoucauld wrote, is “the homage that vice pays to virtue.” Trump is against hypocrisy, he always has been.
When he attacked Venezuela, for example, he said frankly that his goal was to “manage” the country and take control of Venezuelan oil. In previous governments, similar operations were justified by concerns about human rights and democracy.
With Trump, imperial power has dropped all masks.
A Declining Superpower Is More Dangerous
Second observation: the Trump phenomenon should be seen as the reaction of a superpower in decline, which can no longer maintain its global hegemony based on economic competition, in an orderly manner, obeying the rules of the game. The Trump administration is completely dismantling the international architecture that the United States itself built after World War II. Nothing will be left.
The recent attack on Venezuela represents a radical violation of international law by Washington. We can no longer deceive ourselves: having the greatest military power on the planet, the tottering hegemon is willing to use it to crudely impose its will. It refuses to accommodate its interests to the preexisting legal framework. It is unwilling to accept an increasingly multipolar world.
Gone is the Olympus in which the United States lived alone after the dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, at a time when China was only starting its remarkable development and still maintained a discreet presence. But the United States seems to have grown accustomed to this “unipolar moment” and fiercely resists adapting to a new world reality. Now nervous, the hegemon rips its disguises and loses its manners as it wakes up to a world in which China, Russia and the Global South make themselves heard. With Trump’s brutal frankness, it loses credibility and multiplies resistance and contrary reactions in several countries.
Challenges for Brazil
How will Brazil respond to his brave new world? The kidnapping of Maduro and the plans for domination of Venezuela raise, among others, a fundamental issue for our geographical environment: the absence of means of defense in South American countries, in Brazil in particular, that allow the exercise of some deterrence power in the face of the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”. These events even force us to reexamine our participation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which we joined in 1998 without having had a real and in-depth public debate.
It is essential that we take up, albeit with a tragic delay, the strengthening of our Armed Forces and the establishment of a true Defense Industrial Base, with the participation of the national business community and the training of specialized personnel. Let us think of the French model of the DGA (“Direction générale de l’armement“).
Nor should we lose sight of the geographical control of mineral resources and rare earths, as well as that of trade routes and flows, an issue in which the South Atlantic is of increasingly critical importance. The so-called South Atlantic Peace Zone must leave the realm of rhetoric to become the forum for a strategic dialogue among its members, in coordination with the BRICS group. It cannot be said today in good conscience that the Panama Canal is the most reliable bicontinental route.
Finally, and with no less urgency, it is necessary to open an internal debate, on the one hand on the legal situation of our Alcântara Base, kept curiously away from the news and, on the other hand, on the adoption of a policy aimed at preserving Fernando de Noronha (our Greenland?), the object of recent and disturbing references. Nor should we lose sight of the new U.S. military activities in Paraguay, as well as the discomfort that the presence of our Arab/Palestinian population in the Triple Frontier between Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay can suddenly cause Washington.
It is sometimes said that Brazil has made an existential bet on peace. In the world we live in, this bet on peace can be suicidal. The ancient Roman motto is still valid: Se vis pacem, para bellum (if you want peace, prepare for war).
Brazil has lost sight of this basic principle. We are unprepared to face the immense challenges that await us. Our country is gigantic, with ample and varied natural resources. If it is perceived as a giant with feet of clay, incapable of defending itself, it will inevitably be the object of foreign interventions.
These interventions will only not occur if foreign interests can impose themselves via local proxies. We have already had a traumatic experience with President Bolsonaro. Several politicians of the same type are presenting themselves as possible candidates in the 2026 presidential election against President Lula. If one of them wins, Trump will have a vassal-president in Brasília. Without firing a shot, the United States will do whatever it wants in Brazil, just as it does in Milei’s Argentina.
The attack on Venezuela and the attempt to subject it to a process of recolonization should be a shrill wake up call for Brazil and other countries, as it raises the essential question of the absence of deterrence power. Deterrence power means having the capability of credibly indicating that any attack on the national territory will entail significant losses for the aggressor country.
The construction of this deterrence power is urgent. It should have started a long time ago. It is important, among other initiatives, to establish or deepen military cooperation with countries such as China, Russia, India and France. And to rethink military schools, reversing the work of mental colonization and subordination to the doctrines of the United States. Brazil and its armed forces are also intellectually disarmed.
Today, Brazil is the only one of the major countries on the planet that does not have nuclear weapons. And our conventional weapons are insufficient to defend the national territory and our sea coasts. In addition, they are largely supplied by the United States – another point of military vulnerability.
The current situation requires action. Urgent. Well planned. Fearless. We must oppose a new Melian Dialogue.
José Maurício Bustani is a diplomat, was the first Director-General of the OPCW and ambassador in London and Paris. Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. is an economist, former executive director of the IMF in Washington and vice president of the New Development Bank established by the BRICS in Shanghai.
