Category: Analyses

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz listens as Trump boasts about cutting Nord Stream 2.

By Miguel do Rosário

Historians and scholars of diplomacy will struggle to find a moment more degrading, a more humiliating example of one nation’s vassalage to another, than what took place during President Trump’s press conference with current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The meeting, held yesterday in the Oval Office, saw the American president openly brag about cutting off the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline to force Germany to buy American oil — right in front of the German leader.

“I’m the one who ended Nord Stream 2, going to a place called Germany, come to think of it. I’m sorry I did that. I ended Nord Stream 2, nobody else did. And then when Biden came in he immediately approved it… And by the way we have so much oil and gas you will not be able to buy it all,” Trump said, laughing, while looking at Merz.

Friedrich Merz, the conservative CDU leader who became German chancellor on May 6, 2025, and was making his first visit to the U.S. since taking office, listened to Trump’s confession with an awkward smile — a telling example of the submissiveness Europe’s largest economy now displays toward the United States. In fact, Merz’s demeanor throughout the conversation was revolting. His posture, voice, words, gestures — his entire presence exuded a foul stench of vassalage, subservience, and low self-esteem. It was painful to watch.

Trump’s statement was an explicit admission of the most serious sabotage of strategic European infrastructure since World War II. Nord Stream 1, which was bombed in September 2022, and Nord Stream 2, which was never put into operation, were both massive infrastructure projects built with European funds to transport Russian gas — from one of the world’s largest reserves — to the European Union.

The Nord Stream 2 project cost €9.5 billion ($10.83 billion at current rates), financed by Russian state-owned Gazprom with the support of five European energy firms: Austria’s OMV, Anglo-Dutch Shell, France’s Engie, and Germany’s Uniper and Wintershall. All this investment was lost after the sabotage, and neither Europe nor Germany made any serious effort to investigate who was truly responsible.

The numbers reveal the scale of what was destroyed. Nord Stream 1 had an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters and transported 59.2 billion in 2021 — its highest mark since operations began. Nord Stream 2, completed in September 2021 but never activated, would have doubled that capacity to 110 billion cubic meters per year. Together, the pipelines represented more than half the gas Europe imported from Russia.

The absurdity of the situation becomes even clearer when one considers the costs and economic impact. Germany consumes roughly 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, 55% of which came from Russia before the Ukraine conflict. In the first quarter of 2025, the European Union paid an average of €1.08 ($1.23) per cubic meter for U.S. liquefied natural gas — exactly double the €0.51 ($0.58) it paid for Russian LNG. Russian gas delivered by pipeline, when still available, cost only €0.32 ($0.36) per cubic meter.

The math is devastating for the German economy. If Germany were still buying its 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russian pipelines instead of U.S. LNG, it would save $47.85 billion per year. Over a decade, the savings would total $478.5 billion — more than 44 times the amount lost with the Nord Stream 2 investment.

Today, Europe prefers to import far more expensive liquefied gas from the United States, through a process that is also significantly more polluting. U.S. gas is primarily extracted through hydraulic fracturing (fracking), a method banned in many parts of Europe for environmental reasons. In the U.S., the gas must be liquefied to be shipped across the Atlantic, then regasified upon arrival in Europe. This entire process dramatically increases both costs and environmental impact.

Germany is now in economic crisis largely because of this forced change. Industrial costs have soared since the country stopped buying Russian gas, making German energy uncompetitive. Natural gas is especially important for industrial production, and its rising cost directly undermines the competitiveness of German manufacturers in global markets.

German industries are losing ground due to skyrocketing energy costs, while China is gaining an advantage by buying cheaper Russian gas now redirected to the Asian market. Wolfgang Münchau, author of Kaput: The End of the German Miracle, notes that “the German miracle is over.” At the height of hyper-globalization, Russian gas provided cheap fuel to German industry — but that era, with Germany at the top, is gone. Major players in the chemical, engineering, and automotive sectors are struggling, along with the smaller supply networks that support them. Volkswagen, the largest private employer in Germany, is threatening to close factories in the country for the first time in its 87-year history.

Meanwhile, Russia has suffered no real losses. It simply shifted its gas exports from Germany to China. China, in turn, has increased its competitiveness compared to Europe, benefiting from the cheaper gas that once fueled German industry. The only real winners in this scenario are the American oil and gas companies now selling LNG to Europe at inflated prices — reaping extraordinary profits at the expense of Europe’s deindustrialization.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz listened to all of this with a smile during the White House meeting. The level of vassalage is surreal. Trump publicly admitted to working against Germany’s energy infrastructure, forcing the country to buy lower-quality, overpriced American energy — and Germany’s top representative reacted as if he were hearing a casual remark about the weather.

This scene marks a historic moment in global diplomacy: rarely has a world power so openly confessed to sabotaging the infrastructure of an ally, and even more rarely has the sabotaged nation responded with such submission. Germany, once the economic engine of Europe, now serves as a cautionary tale of how geopolitical dependence can transform a prosperous country into an economic vassal of its so-called allies. With an annual energy overpayment of $47.85 billion, Germany is paying the highest price in history for its submission to Washington.

After the meeting, the German chancellor posted the following message on his social media:

“The US and Germany share the same DNA. We are partners. We are friends. We are literally family. Many citizens here in the US have ancestors from Germany. I just gave President Trump a copy of his grandfather’s birth certificate. He was born in Kallstadt, Germany, in 1869.”

The strategic importance of agribusiness in Brazil’s international relations.

João Campos, the new national president of the PSB party and mayor of Recife, advocated in an interview with Folha de S.Paulo for a political strategy of rapprochement with three specific sectors: evangelicals, informal workers, and agribusiness. “The ideal world is to pull the center closer, not to push it to the right,” declared the politician from Pernambuco.

Comments on evangelicals and informal workers will be analyzed at another time. In this article, we will focus on the mention of agribusiness.

João Campos’ reasoning is valid, and for this strategy to work, it’s important to offer a contribution on how the left can relate to this sector intelligently and constructively.

It would be a shame if sectarian leftism hindered Brazil’s historic chance to crush the far-right and coup plotters, and accelerate its development.

The best way to build this alliance is through information: truly understanding the meaning of agribusiness for the national economy and for Brazilian life itself. The term carries political semantics that often generate prejudice. The word itself, with its suffix “business,” ends up creating an automatic association with purely capitalist aspects, generating resistance that overlooks a fundamental issue: without agriculture, there is no food. The second misconception is to imagine that the sector is composed exclusively of large producers, and the third is to harbor unjustified prejudices against these rural entrepreneurs.

The numbers for soy in Brazil in 2024 reveal the gigantic dimension of this sector in the national economy. The soy production chain generated R$ 650.4 billion, representing 5.5% of Brazil’s entire GDP and directly supporting 2.26 million workers. In exports, soy and its derivatives were responsible for 15.5% of everything Brazil sold abroad. We don’t eat GDP – but we eat soy. It’s in our children’s milk, in the protein that sustains our families, in the food base that allows for the existence of modern urban life.

The oilseed is the protein food base for Brazil, China, the United States, and practically the entire planet. Brazilian agribusiness alone feeds about 800 million people worldwide, with soy being responsible for a significant portion of this food capacity.

It’s fundamental to demystify another prejudice: Brazilian oilseed is not produced by two or three large entrepreneurs. There are more than 236,000 producers spread across the country, with 73% of producing establishments having less than 50 hectares, characterized as small properties. Data from Embrapa reveal that in Paraná, 22% of the total soy production comes from small farmers; in Santa Catarina, 33%; and in Rio Grande do Sul, 20%. Although family farming represents only 9% of the total national soy production (due to the sector’s strong land concentration), its participation is significant in terms of the number of producers and social importance.

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Brazil as a Global Soy Power

Brazil has achieved a unique position in the global soy scenario, becoming the largest global exporter of the oilseed and surpassing the United States. Between 2015 and 2025 (according to the USDA’s forecast, the U.S. government’s agricultural agency), Brazilian production jumped from 95.7 million tons to 175.0 million tons, a growth of 83%. In the same period, Brazilian exports grew from 54.4 million tons to 112.0 million tons, an increase of 106%. In contrast, the United States, which produced 106.9 million tons in 2015, is expected to reach only 118.1 million tons by 2025 (U.S. government estimate), a growth of only 11%.

This Brazilian revolution has its roots in the scientific work developed by Embrapa starting in the 1970s. Brazil achieved an unprecedented feat in the history of world agriculture: it adapted a plant originally cultivated in temperate regions to the country’s environmental conditions. Soy, traditionally sown between latitudes 35° and 55° north, became viable also in equatorial and subtropical zones, thanks to the efforts of Brazilian researchers.

Brazil developed a unique competitive advantage: while the Northern Hemisphere is in the off-season, Brazil is harvesting, ensuring constant supply to the world market. This seasonal complementarity has transformed the country into the main provider of global food security, especially for China, which imports over 100 million tons of soy annually.

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The Perfect Protein: The Secret of Essential Amino Acids

Soy is the only vegetable that contains all nine essential amino acids in adequate proportions for human nutrition. Proteins are composed of 20 different amino acids, 9 of which are considered “essential” because the human body cannot produce them on its own. While most vegetable proteins are considered “incomplete” due to lacking one or more essential amino acids, soy represents a remarkable exception, receiving the maximum score in protein quality. This score places soy protein on the same level as animal proteins considered “complete,” such as meat, eggs, and milk.

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National Self-Esteem and Agricultural Technology

Brazil needs to adequately recognize and value its technological achievements. We live in a society that often suffers from an inferiority complex, lamenting not producing cutting-edge cell phones, computers, or automobiles. This distorted view ignores a fundamental truth: Brazil masters agricultural technologies that are as complex as, or even more complex than, the production of numerous industrial products.

Producing 3,500 kilograms of soy per hectare in the Brazilian Cerrado requires mastery of biotechnology, genetics, soil chemistry, climatology, precision engineering, and geographic information systems – an extremely sophisticated body of scientific knowledge.

Modern Brazilian agriculture incorporates technologies at the frontier of world knowledge: autonomous GPS-guided tractors with centimeter precision, drones equipped with multispectral sensors, and variable application systems that automatically adjust the quantity of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides according to the specific characteristics of each square meter of the field.

Brazil developed and perfected an agricultural technique that revolutionized world agriculture: the no-till farming system. To understand its importance, it’s necessary to know that traditionally, farmers plowed and turned over all the land before planting, completely removing previous vegetation. No-till farming works completely differently: seeds are planted directly over the residues of the previous crop, without disturbing the soil. This permanent “mulch” protects the land from erosion, conserves moisture, improves natural fertility, and drastically reduces fuel and machinery use. This technique, now adopted worldwide, allows Brazil to produce soy more sustainably and efficiently. Crop-livestock-forestry integration (ILPF), a system developed in Brazil and now exported as technology to other countries, represents a sophistication of management that combines knowledge of agronomy, animal husbandry, silviculture, ecology, and rural economics.

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The Geopolitical Dimension

Brazil’s position as the world’s largest soy exporter carries geopolitical implications of extraordinary relevance for the nation’s future. With the United States systematically losing market share in the global market and China consolidating itself as the main buyer of Brazilian oilseed, the country finds itself in an unprecedented strategic position in the history of its international trade relations.

This new reality makes it urgent for Brazil’s democratic field to develop a strategic understanding of this sector’s importance for national sovereignty.

Developing a political culture that can better and more strategically understand this sector, especially its geopolitical importance, is essential for the country to maximize the benefits of this privileged position. Brazilian soy is not just an agricultural commodity – it is an instrument of power that can determine alliances, influence trade negotiations, and strengthen Brazil’s position as an emerging power.

The ability to feed hundreds of millions of people around the world gives Brazil a power of influence that transcends traditional trade relations. In a world increasingly concerned with food security, control over the production and distribution of essential proteins represents a form of soft power that the country has not yet fully explored.

Sources:
Embrapa, USDA FAS, Embrapa – História do Agronegócio da Soja no Brasil, AInvest, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Embrapa – Plantio Direto, Embrapa – Integração Lavoura-Pecuária-Floresta (ILPF).

Relations between Brazil and China continue to deepen extraordinarily. Brazilian exports to China in the first four months of 2025 (January-April) totaled US$28.5 billion, representing 26.5% of Brazil’s total exports during the period. If Taiwan were included, the total would reach US$29.0 billion, accounting for 27.0% of Brazilian exports. The main products exported by Brazil to China were soybeans (US$10.8 billion), crude oil (US$5.3 billion), iron ore (US$5.2 billion), and beef (US$1.9 billion).

These four products—soybeans, crude oil, iron ore, and beef—represented 37.5% of Brazil’s exports from January to April 2025, with China absorbing 57.7% of this total. These items are fundamental to Brazil’s trade surplus, according to data from ComexStat (Brazil’s trade statistics system) and China Customs.

This is not merely about trade, because these are not ordinary products, but absolutely critical commodities for the physical survival of the Chinese people. Two of these products are directly linked to the most decisive factor for human nutrition. Both beef and soybeans are the world’s richest food sources of protein.

The other two products—iron ore and crude oil—are, in turn, equally strategic inputs. Oil remains the world’s primary energy source. Iron ore is the main component for construction, essential for steel production. Without iron ore, there is no steel; without steel, there are no railways, ports, or construction in China.

Brazilian producers play a crucial role in China’s food security. In soybeans, Brazil’s dominance is absolute: 75% of the 100 million tons annually imported by China come from Brazil, followed by the U.S. (18%) and Argentina (5%). In January-April 2025, China bought 74.1% of all soybeans exported by Brazil. This soybean supply sustains the entire animal production chain of the Asian giant, as 70% of imported volume becomes feed for livestock that produce meat, milk, and eggs consumed by 1.4 billion people.

Simultaneously, Brazil leads beef exports to China, holding 45% of the market, surpassing Argentina (15%), Uruguay (10%), and Australia. Brazilian beef accounts for 12.1% of Chinese consumption. In January-April 2025, China purchased 54.0% of all beef exported by Brazil.

Brazilian iron ore similarly fuels China’s urban and industrial expansion, representing 25% of its imports, while Australia dominates with 60%. Brazilian ore supplies 8.7% of China’s total consumption and meets 20–25% of its imports. In Q1 2025, China absorbed 65.0% of Brazil’s iron ore exports.

In energy, Brazilian crude oil accounts for 8% of China’s imports, in a market led by Saudi Arabia (17%), Russia (15%), and Iraq (12%). In January-April 2025, China bought 37.4% of Brazil’s exported oil, totaling US$5.3 billion. This share diversifies China’s energy matrix and reduces geopolitical vulnerabilities.

China imports 85% of its consumed soybeans, 68% of its oil, 54% of its iron ore, and 26% of its beef.

Among all agricultural commodities, soybeans stand out for unique nutritional traits. They contain 40% protein, far surpassing corn (8–10%), wheat (12–14%), and other legumes like beans (20–25%). Soybeans also provide complete protein, containing all eight amino acids essential for animal and human nutrition.

Brazilian soybean production focuses on grains. China processes this material to extract oil and produce meal, which constitutes two-thirds of global protein ingredients for animal feed.

Soybean’s historical trajectory spans five millennia. Farmers in the Yellow River Valley first domesticated this plant, which remained confined to the Far East for millennia. Its expansion to Europe occurred in the 18th century, reaching the Americas only in the 20th century.

The nutritional revolution of the last century definitively transformed global livestock farming. Researchers discovered that combining soybeans with cereals creates highly efficient feed, enabling significant increases in meat and egg production. This discovery revolutionized animal production systems worldwide.

Environmental limitations intensify China’s need for reliable partners. The country intensely exploits its arable land and faces growing soil degradation, water scarcity, and air pollution.

On Brazil’s side, prospects are favorable for expanding protein supply. The MATOPIBA region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia) adds millions of productive hectares. Tropical agricultural technology enhances competitive advantages for national agribusiness. Brazil’s high-quality iron ore reserves guarantee supply for decades. The pré-sal oil fields offer stable energy for Chinese cities and industries while generating trade surplus.

This convergence between China’s needs and Brazil’s capabilities creates an alliance deepening amid rising global geopolitical tensions. While Western powers intensify pressure on China and force alignments, Brazil provides natural resources, agricultural technology, and institutional stability. China reciprocates with market access, investments, and industrial technology.

Brazil should leverage this position to attract Chinese infrastructure investments. The deepening strategic relationship creates opportunities for transformative projects. The bioceanic railway—connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific via Brazil and Peru, accessing Chancay Port—is only the beginning. The country could attract investments in high-speed rail, metro systems, and LRTs to revolutionize urban mobility.

Another product scaling rapidly in exports to China—which may soon become a top export—is coffee. Chinese consumers are maturing their coffee habits, opening promising prospects for this Brazilian commodity.

As Confucius observed: “Is it not a joy to have friends coming from afar?” In this partnership, friendship has transformed into a geopolitical blood pact, based on shared vital needs and a common vision for the future.

“What was taken by force can only be recovered by force,” declared Egyptian leader Nasser in 1956, after seizing the Suez Canal. Nasser’s advice remains relevant today. Countries of the Global South no longer need to reclaim canals, although they might need to defend one—the Panama Canal—but they do need to unite to confront an imperialism increasingly corrupted by wars, sanctions, tariffs, and genocides.

The BRICS nations do not lack strength. China and Russia, together, are militarily unbeatable, and the entire bloc, including Brazil, combines economic, agricultural, industrial, and technological power that emerging nations have never had in the past. In the small and combative Maricá, a city of about 197,000 inhabitants located 47 km from the capital of Rio de Janeiro state, a few more bricks were laid for the construction of a new world.

“We are living through a historic moment in which an old world order, based on hegemony imposed by force, war, and selfishness, is coming to an end,” declared Mayor Washington Quaquá during the first Assembly of the BRICS+ Association of Cities and Municipalities, held from May 26 to 28, 2025, at the Arena da Barra in Maricá.

The BRICS, originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded significantly in recent years. In 2024, the bloc incorporated six new members: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Iran, and Indonesia. Furthermore, in January 2025, nine partner countries were announced: Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan. Today, with eleven full member countries and nine partners, the group represents over 40% of the world’s population and approximately 37% of global GDP. Brazil’s commitment to a multipolar world was reaffirmed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during his videoconference speech at the 16th BRICS Summit, held in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.

Lula declared: “During Brazil’s presidency of BRICS, we want to reaffirm the bloc’s vocation in the fight for a multipolar world and for less asymmetrical relations between countries.” The president also advocated for BRICS to be a central actor in building a more inclusive and sustainable international governance, emphasizing the importance of strengthening South-South cooperation and ensuring that the voice of governments prevails over private interests.

The event in Maricá, which served as preparation for the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro (scheduled for July 6 and 7 at the Museum of Modern Art), brought together municipal leaders from 26 countries. Among the authorities present were Rio’s Mayor Eduardo Paes, president of the National Front of Mayors, and Ilsur Metshin, Mayor of Kazan (Russia), who had chaired the association since its founding in 2024.

The assembly coincided with Quaquá’s unanimous election to the presidency of the BRICS+ Association of Cities and Municipalities. He already commanded the Brazilian Association of Municipalities (ABM) and now leads an association linked to a bloc that represents 40% of the world economy and almost half of the global population.

According to International Monetary Fund projections released in May 2025, BRICS GDP is expected to grow by 3.4% this year, significantly surpassing the world average of 2.8%. The countries leading this growth are Ethiopia (6.6%), India (6.2%), and Indonesia (4.7%), according to Agencia Gov data.

Brazil emerges with unprecedented strength in this new scenario. It has never been so strengthened in foreign trade. Its international reserves are reaching historical levels. Its democratic institutions have set an example to the world of resistance against destabilizing movements. It’s no coincidence that this meeting took place in Maricá, the rebellious jewel of Brazilian municipalities. With an annual budget of R$7 billion for 2025—higher than that of four state capitals—and oil royalties expected to reach R$4 billion this year, the city implements revolutionary policies in various fields, including urban mobility, popular credit, and education.

The event reinforces that political agents should not be mere technical administrators. Quaquá exemplifies the manager who understands his political dimension. He represents not only administrative interests but also the political aspirations of citizens.

Nasser died in 1970, but his message lives on; Egypt is now part of BRICS. If he were alive, Nasser would recognize in BRICS+ the continuation of his struggle: resistance against imperial domination and the construction of sovereign alternatives. BRICS is more important than ever at a time when the American government is attacking international trade. The entire world is looking to BRICS with hope that the bloc can bring some solutions to a planet in upheaval.

It’s a good time to remember another historical leader in the anti-imperialist struggle: “Let us build together a world where all peoples can live in peace and dignity. This is the first intercontinental conference of colored peoples in the history of humanity. We are now free, sovereign, and independent. We are, once again, masters in our own house,” concluded Sukarno, President of Indonesia, at the end of the famous Bandung Conference in 1955, which initiated a movement similar to today’s BRICS.

Photos: Maricá City Hall.

Last Friday, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced: “The United States is proud to be back in the Indo-Pacific—and we’re here to stay.” Soon after, he admitted: “For a generation, we ignored this region, distracted by endless wars, regime change, and nation-building.” A curious detail: during the same period, Asia experienced its most peaceful and prosperous cycle, while the areas where Washington focused—the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia—were marked by ruins and deficits.

The secretary then presented the new danger. According to him, “China seeks to become a hegemonic power” and “the threat is real—and it may be imminent.” The proof, he claimed, was the order for Chinese forces to be ready, if needed, by 2027. For analysts, this is merely a preparedness goal; for Hegseth, it became a countdown.

To illustrate, he invoked scenes in the South China Sea: water cannons against Philippine boats, ship collisions, and artificial islands with airstrips. He concluded: “Any attempt to change the status quo is unacceptable.” The audience took note, remembering that a large part of the regional economy depends on the very routes the secretary promised to police.

Then came the prescription: “peace through strength.” The U.S. military budget will exceed one trillion dollars, purchasing submarines, stealth bombers, and hypersonic missiles. And Hegseth was clear: regional allies should spend 5% of their GDP on defense. For those who still need to expand sewage systems or classrooms, this target is a heavy burden.

Almost in the same breath, he warned that doing too much business with Beijing would create dependency. However, buying American weapons, he argued, would guarantee autonomy. A reversal that demands faith, not logic.

The French analyst Bertrand offered a mirror: imagine China landing in Canada and Mexico, saying that “the American threat is imminent,” demanding 5% of their GDP for weapons, and promising to “fight and win.” Would this be seen as cooperation or provocation?

Hegseth listed the package of measures: missiles on Luzon Island, medium-range tests in Australia, ammunition production with India, and a regional drone consortium. The idea is to “create daily dilemmas” for Beijing—constant pressure that, according to critics, transforms minor incidents into genuine sparks.

He then praised Germany for spending more on defense and suggested that Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines do the same. To cap it off, he cited the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Iwo Jima, and the American cemetery in Manila as reminders of sacrifices that justify new checks. The Asian audience listened in silence.

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The dilemma remains: what kind of peace arises from invented threats, paranoid speeches, and regional rearmament?

Hegseth’s full address is available here.

In a global landscape marked by growing concern over the Israel-Palestine conflict—particularly amid intensified hostilities in Gaza—French President Emmanuel Macron has signaled a potential shift in his country’s policy. By considering recognition of a Palestinian State, France openly challenges the conduct of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, introducing a new element into the Middle East’s complex geopolitical equation. This declaration comes at a time of mounting international pressure for a ceasefire and a lasting solution to the conflict, raising crucial questions about the region’s future and Europe’s role in the process. This article analyzes the implications of this potential shift in France’s stance and its impact on the international stage.

France’s Historical Position and Strategic Shift

A traditional defender of the two-state solution, France has engaged in decades of diplomatic initiatives without ever taking the decisive step of unilateral recognition. Now, Macron declares openly: “We must move toward recognition. I will do this because, at some point, it will be the right thing to do.” This pivot is driven by three interconnected factors:

• The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, with over 50,000 Palestinian deaths recorded, triggering global outrage and pressure on Western leaders;
• The accelerated erosion of the two-state solution, as Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank undermines Palestinian territorial viability;
• France’s geopolitical ambition to lead an alternative international coalition, evidenced by its co-hosting of the New York Conference (June 17–20) with Saudi Arabia, aimed at establishing parameters for a Palestinian State.

The shift reflects a sober assessment in Paris: after seven months of war, the window for a negotiated solution is closing. As Macron’s advisor Anne-Claire Legendre stated: “Faced with facts on the ground, the prospect of a Palestinian state must be maintained. Irreversible and concrete measures are necessary.”

Geopolitical Impact: Reshaping Alliances and Threats

French recognition would trigger cascading effects across the international chessboard:

✦ In the West:

• European domino effect: Norway, Slovenia, and Ireland have signaled support, but Germany and the UK remain cautious. As Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide noted: “If France moves, several countries will follow.” Portugal stated it is in “permanent assessment” of the issue, revealing fractures within the EU.
• Pressure on the U.S.: The move would isolate Washington, Netanyahu’s last major Western ally rejecting recognition.

✦ In the Arab World:

• Macron seeks reciprocity: “Those who advocate for Palestine must recognize Israel in turn.” Saudi Arabia, co-host of the June conference, is central to this strategy—though Riyadh shows no signs of normalizing relations without Israeli concessions in the West Bank.

✦ Israel’s Responses:

• Annexation threats: Israeli Minister Ron Dermer warned that if France and the UK recognize Palestine, Israel will annex parts of Area C in the West Bank and legalize unauthorized settlements.
• Diplomatic retaliation: Sources reveal Israel threatened reduced intelligence sharing and boycotts of French regional initiatives.
  

Gaza as Catalyst: The Moral Imperative

Israel’s offensive in Gaza has transformed the Palestinian question into a global humanitarian imperative. The bombing of a shelter-school on May 26 (56 killed) exemplifies the escalation forcing Western leaders to rethink positions. For Macron, this shift reflects not just political calculus but a response to “the international community’s inaction in the face of humanitarian tragedy,” as Brazil denounced.

Yet France’s strategy faces criticism:

• Symbolism vs. substance: Diplomats warn recognition will be “premature and ineffective” without sanctions on settlements or real pressure for withdrawal.
• Palestinian fragmentation: As Rabea Eghbariah (Harvard) notes, “legal debates obscure the totality of Palestinian status,” treating Gaza, the West Bank, and refugees as disconnected issues.
  

Structural Obstacles: Why the Path Will Be Arduous

France’s initiative confronts four entrenched barriers:

✦ Western Division:

The EU remains fractured, with one European diplomat cautioning: “This recognition would not be helpful now.” The U.S. and Germany resist, fearing destabilization of Netanyahu and empowerment of Hamas.

✦ Legal Traps:

Israel manipulates legal categories to justify violence. As Noura Erakat (Rutgers) explains:

• Redefining Gaza as a “hostile entity” (not occupied);
• “Diminished civilian” doctrine allowing targeting of Palestinians suspected of “continuous combat role.”

✦ Domestic Factors:

• In Israel: Recognition would fuel the far-right’s “world against us” narrative, per Tamir Hayman (INSS).
• In France: Europe’s largest Jewish and Muslim communities polarize domestic debate.

✦ The Existential Question:

As seen in the Oslo Accords (1993–2000), Israelis and Palestinians regressed to “1940s-era existential struggle” when talks failed. Unilateral recognition doesn’t resolve core disputes: 1967 borders, Jerusalem’s status, right of return.

Conclusion: An Inflection Point in the Pursuit of Peace?

France’s signaling represents the most serious Western challenge to the Israeli status quo in decades. By linking Palestinian recognition to Arab normalization with Israel, Macron aims to forge a new diplomatic equilibrium. Yet risks loom: Israeli annexations in the West Bank, Netanyahu’s deepening isolation, and potential rupture of fragile Western consensus.

Success hinges on Paris converting symbolism into practical leverage. As experts suggest, recognition will only matter if paired with settlement sanctions and Gaza reconstruction. June’s New York Conference will be the decisive test: if it secures mutual Arab-Israeli recognition commitments, Macron could redraw the Middle East’s political map. If it fails, it will confirm diplomacy’s crisis in confronting entrenched colonial realities.

As the two-state solution withers, France bets that only bold gestures can prevent its definitive collapse. As one French official summarized: “If there is a moment in history to recognize a Palestinian state—even symbolically—I’d say that moment has likely arrived.” The world watches to see if this conviction will inspire others to follow.

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Sources: Le Monde (France), Haaretz (Israel), Al Jazeera (Qatar), Financial Times (UK), Público (Portugal), ANBA (Brazil-Arab News Agency), official statements.

By Miguel do Rosario, editor of Global South News

While the United States and its Western vassals burn through billions more dollars on a new military front in the Middle East, bombing civilians in Yemen, the Chinese dragon continues to win the economic battle simply by doing business.

According to exclusive data compiled by Cafezinho and Global South News (the English-language “sibling” outlet of Cafezinho), China’s foreign trade has once again shattered records in the first two months of the year.

From January to February 2025, China’s total trade volume (the sum of exports and imports) reached $909.37 billion. The country’s trade surplus with the rest of the world in this period hit $170.52 billion, marking a staggering 36% year-over-year increase and setting a historic record.

The comparison to the United States is inevitable. Despite indiscriminately imposing sanctions on countless countries and pouring vast sums into industrial policies since Biden’s tenure, the U.S. trade deficit continues to grow.

In February 2025 alone, the U.S. trade deficit hit -$155.6 billion—nearly double the -$92 billion deficit recorded in the same month the previous year. But a full-year comparison is more telling. In 2024, China’s trade surplus reached a historic high of nearly $1 trillion, while the U.S. moved in the exact opposite direction, posting a deficit exceeding $1.2 trillion.

This, of course, explains the desperation of the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump and its delusional policy of imposing tariffs on the entire world. The American production system has lost competitiveness and is now trying to claw back ground through sheer noise.

Over recent decades, while the U.S. political elite wasted trillions of taxpayer dollars on pointless wars, China built a high-speed rail network spanning 50,000 km. The U.S. has zero km of high-speed rail.

As the U.S. funds genocide in Gaza (now expanding to the West Bank and Lebanon) and boasts about installing a former Al Qaeda operative to lead Syria, China announces that state-owned chipmaker SMIC has successfully produced a 5-nanometer chip—despite (or rather, because of) all sanctions imposed by the White House. This humiliates the lapdog nations of the Global North, which have lost hundreds of billions in Chinese business only to cling to a losing horse.

Let’s return to China’s trade data, which carries immense weight because the “West” cannot pretend it doesn’t exist or accuse Beijing of distorting numbers through bureaucratic trickery. Falsifying trade statistics is extremely difficult, as the figures must align: Every product China imports from Country X is recorded by both Chinese customs and the customs of the exporting nation.

When analyzing China’s key trade partners and its overall foreign trade, two factors stand out. The first is the deep economic interdependence with the United States.

Despite the political screeching from Washington, U.S.-China trade grew in 2024, reaching nearly $700 billion ($688 billion to be exact). The all-time peak, however, occurred in 2022 at $752 billion.

2025 has started strong for bilateral trade, with total volume rising 2.4% year-over-year to $102 billion in the first two months. China’s surplus with the U.S. reached $49 billion, up 2.1%.

The second factor is the Asian pivot of Chinese trade, driven by the region’s economic development. Instead of exporting coups, as the U.S. does in its sphere of influence, China exports high-speed rail, ports, roads, and digital connectivity. With ASEAN alone—the bloc comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia—China’s trade volume hit nearly $1 trillion in 2024. This dwarfs its $688 billion trade with the U.S. and $785.8 billion with the EU during the same period.

Notably, ASEAN excludes Japan, with which China recorded $308 billion in trade in 2024.

China is using infrastructure investments to cultivate new markets, reducing reliance on the U.S. and Europe. Some of these markets are in Asia, while others lie in Africa and Latin America.

The data suggests Brazil should pay close attention to this Chinese strategy. China holds massive surplus capital that must be exported to sustain its growth, creating opportunities for emerging economies.

For Brazil, modernizing national infrastructure—especially freight and passenger transport—is urgent. This includes expanding metro systems, connecting states via high-speed rail, and slashing structural logistics costs.

China is diversifying its consumption patterns, incorporating products like coffee, which could reshape global markets. Coffee, being labor-intensive, offers job-creation potential unlike mechanized commodities.

Per official Chinese government data, China imported $918 million worth of coffee over the 12 months ending February 2025—the second-highest value on record, trailing only the same period a year earlier.

Brazil supplied 30% of China’s coffee imports in those 12 months, followed by Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

But soybeans remain Brazil’s top export to China. In 2024, Brazil shipped $36.5 billion in soybeans to China, accounting for a staggering 69% of all Chinese soybean imports. Total Chinese soybean imports for 2024 reached $52.73 billion.

In 2023, Brazil also held 69% of China’s soybean market. However, in the first two months of 2025, Brazil’s share plummeted to 27%, with a nearly 60% drop compared to the same period in 2024. The reasons likely include last year’s Brazilian crop failure and Chinese importers rushing to buy U.S. soybeans ahead of anticipated retaliatory tariffs.

With a bumper Brazilian harvest expected this year, the country will likely reclaim its position as China’s top soybean supplier.

Finally, let’s discuss oil.

China runs an oil deficit. In 2024, it imported over $500 billion in oil, resulting in a $450 billion deficit. This explains why Chinese state oil giants are heavily investing in overseas exploration, including in Brazil.

The U.S., meanwhile, after years of deficits in the early 2000s, has rebounded to a massive surplus. In 2024, U.S. petroleum product exports hit $320 billion, with a $79 billion oil trade surplus—the largest in years, possibly ever.

China’s oil deficit also underscores its growing reliance on Russia, its top supplier since the Ukraine war. In 2019, Russia supplied just 6% of China’s oil imports. By 2024, this jumped to 19%, holding steady into early 2025.

Other key oil suppliers to China in early 2025 (ranked by volume) include Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq, the UAE, Oman, and Brazil.

In 2024, Brazil accounted for 4.6% of China’s oil imports—identical to the U.S. share. But in early 2025, Brazil overtook the U.S., exporting $3.45 billion in oil versus America’s $3.21 billion.

Conclusion

To reiterate: China now holds the world’s largest pool of surplus capital for infrastructure investment, and Brazil has become one of its most strategic partners. Our economies are deeply integrated, as Brazil supplies the oil, iron ore, and protein essential to Chinese life. What do we lack? Infrastructure, particularly in transport—a sector where China shines as the global leader.

A cornerstone of China’s development has been rail transport: metro systems in megacities, modern freight railways, and high-speed networks connecting the nation. It’s time for Brazil to leverage this partnership to transform its own crumbling transport system.

Sources: China Customs, US Census Bureau, Comexstat (Brazil).