Iran’s commanding leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the drawing of red lines, but through direct, decisive action targeting the financial and political nerve centres of the global elite, according to Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies.
Speaking to Sputnik, Balmasov argued that Washington’s subsequent scramble toward the diplomatic track — effectively imploring Tehran to reopen the strait — is itself a testament to the effectiveness of Iran’s strategy. “The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” he stated, adding that “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” had enabled a nation considered technologically and militarily inferior on paper to “change the situation in its favour” in a manner few Western strategists had anticipated.
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant against inevitable reprisals — what he termed “vendettas” — for its audacious reordering of regional power dynamics. These retaliatory measures, he warned, would not be limited to potential military aggression, but would also encompass covert attempts to destabilise Iran’s domestic landscape by exploiting fault lines around minority communities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent.
Investment Confidence Shattered Across the Gulf
Balmasov identified the most consequential dimension of the Hormuz crisis as not the disruption to oil supplies per se, but the profound economic uncertainty that has descended upon the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states had been widely regarded as islands of stability — their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the conventional wisdom of investors and governments alike, “no one would dare” challenge.
Iran’s actions have exposed those guarantees as structurally hollow. “From an investment perspective,” Balmasov explained, the crisis has made it “extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket,” as the security architecture long marketed to international capital has been shown to rest on fragile foundations. The analyst suggested that capital flows previously directed toward Gulf states may now seek alternative safe havens — with Iran itself potentially emerging as a destination should international sanctions be lifted.
“Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” Balmasov concluded. In his assessment, even a negotiated settlement would fail to restore the pre-crisis climate of confidence in the near term, as perceptions of regional stability have been fundamentally and perhaps irreversibly altered. The psychological and financial damage to the Gulf’s image as a secure investment environment, he implied, may outlast any formal diplomatic resolution by years.
Find more details at Sputnik International.