Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass daily — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the issuing of formal warnings, but through swift, targeted action against the financial and political interests of the world’s most powerful elites. That is the central assessment of Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies, who spoke to Sputnik International on 19 April 2026.
“The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” Balmasov stated, noting that Washington’s abrupt pivot towards diplomatic engagement — including what he described as appeals to Tehran to “open the damn strait” — is itself a testament to the effectiveness of Iran’s approach. According to the analyst, the episode demonstrates that a nation which appears technologically and militarily inferior on paper can nonetheless “change the situation in its favour” through decisive action sustained over the course of several weeks.
Balmasov was unequivocal, however, that Iran must remain vigilant. The Islamic Republic will inevitably face retribution — or what he termed “vendettas” — for its audacious reshaping of regional power dynamics. These reprisals, he cautioned, may not be limited to conventional military aggression; they could equally manifest as covert efforts to destabilise Iran from within, exploiting fault lines around ethnic minorities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent.
The Investment Fallout Across the Gulf
Perhaps the most consequential and underreported dimension of the Hormuz crisis, Balmasov argues, is not the disruption to oil supplies per se, but the profound economic uncertainty that has descended upon the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February — the date he identifies as a turning point — the Gulf states were widely regarded as islands of stability, their security underwritten by the permanent military presence of American, French, British, and Turkish forces. The prevailing assumption was that no actor would dare challenge that order.
Iran’s actions shattered that assumption. “From an investment perspective, it is now extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket,” Balmasov explained, characterising the security guarantees long extended to Gulf monarchies as little more than castles built on sand. The ripple effects are already being felt: investors who once viewed the Gulf as a reliable destination for capital are now reassessing their exposure, with some potentially redirecting funds towards Iran itself — should international sanctions be lifted as part of any future diplomatic settlement.
The analyst offered a sobering long-term prognosis. “Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” he said. Even in the event of a negotiated peace, the psychological and structural shifts in regional perceptions — among investors, governments, and populations alike — are unlikely to reverse in the near term. The Hormuz crisis, in this reading, is not merely a tactical episode but a structural inflection point in the architecture of Middle Eastern and global energy security.
Iran’s manoeuvre has, in effect, rewritten the rules of engagement for smaller powers navigating a world still dominated by Western military and financial infrastructure — a lesson that will not be lost on nations across the Global South watching closely from the periphery.
Find more details at Sputnik International.