Category: Analyses

  • Exclusive! China racks up $1 trillion trade surplus over 12 months through March

    Exclusive! China racks up $1 trillion trade surplus over 12 months through March

    By Miguel do Rosario, editor

    In 2024, China came close to hitting a $1 trillion trade surplus — but just missed the mark. Last year’s surplus stood at $992 billion. Some analysts said it was “close to a trillion,” but the truth is, China hadn’t crossed that line yet.

    Now it has.

    The figures come straight from the Chinese government — more precisely, from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC). The 12-month compilation was put together exclusively by Cafezinho

    According to official data, China exported $3.62 trillion worth of goods over the 12 months ending in March 2025, marking a nearly 7% increase from the previous period and a stunning 56% jump over the past seven years.

    Imports during the same period totaled $2.54 trillion, remaining flat compared to the previous year.

    That pushed China’s trade surplus over the past 12 months to a whopping $1.08 trillion — an all-time record.

    The trade surplus is calculated as exports minus imports.

    China’s total trade volume — the sum of exports and imports — reached $6.16 trillion over the 12 months through March.

    Looking at the monthly and quarterly breakdowns, the numbers also hit historic highs.

    In March alone, Chinese exports totaled $313.9 billion, up 12% from March 2024. Imports for the month dropped 5% to $221.3 billion, giving China a staggering monthly surplus of $102.6 billion — another record, and 75% higher than the surplus posted in March 2024.

    The first-quarter numbers tell a similar story of record-breaking trade.

    We’ve put together a series of tables below to help you get a sense of how the world’s top industrial powerhouse is doing on the trade front.

    You’ll see, for instance, that the United States’ share of China’s total trade dropped to just 10% in March — the lowest level in decades — compared to 18% for ASEAN countries and 12% for the European Union.

    China’s trade with Thailand, a key ASEAN member, grew 23% in March and 15% for the first quarter.

    For the first time, China is also breaking out the countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative in its trade data. Altogether, these countries accounted for 51% of China’s total trade volume in March and during the January–March period.

    Meanwhile, Brazil is missing out on the action with China. In the first quarter, China slashed its imports from Brazil by a staggering 34%. As a result, Brazil’s share of China’s total imports plunged from 4.7% in Q1 2024 to just 3.3% in Q1 2025. In March alone, Chinese imports from Brazil tumbled 36%!

    One big reason seems to be a sharp decline in Brazilian soybean exports to China. It’s a clear sign that Brazil’s failure to diversify its export lineup with China is a costly strategic mistake.

    This slump flipped the Brazil-China trade balance — which had been heavily in Brazil’s favor — into negative territory both in March and for the full first quarter. However, this trend could reverse quickly starting in April as the new soybean crop comes to market. Plus, the ongoing US-China tariff war is creating fresh opportunities for Brazilian exporters.

    Among China’s top exports, technology products stood out. In the first quarter, China shipped $209 billion worth of high-tech goods, a 6% increase from a year ago — outpacing overall export growth.

    China also remains a powerhouse in mechanical and electronic goods. In Q1, China exported $47.7 billion worth of computers (up 7% year-on-year) and $41 billion in chips (up 11%).

    On the import side, China remains a major buyer of agricultural products (8% of its total imports) and oil (14%, including crude and refined). The country is also a significant importer of computers, chips, and aircraft.

  • Trump’s new imperial madness

    Trump’s new imperial madness

    US escalates sanctions, criminalizes global use of Huawei’s AI chips.

    By Miguel do Rosario, editor of Global South News.

    On May 13, the US Department of Commerce issued a sweeping new directive—imperialist, authoritarian, and disturbingly dystopian in scope.

    Under this latest order, merely using Huawei’s Ascend 910B, 910C, or 910D artificial intelligence chips could be deemed a violation of US export laws—even if those chips are used outside the United States, including inside China itself.

    Although the Ascend chips are designed and manufactured by Huawei, the US government argues that they were developed using American-origin technologies, design software, or manufacturing equipment. That claim triggers the so-called Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR), which allows the US to enforce restrictions on any foreign-made product built with American tech, regardless of where it’s produced or deployed.

    So, even if a Chinese company uses an Ascend chip inside China, it could be in breach of US law—because, according to the Commerce Department, it’s “highly likely” that the Ascend 910B, 910C, and 910D chips incorporate American technology.

    Washington’s crackdown on Huawei began in May 2019, when the company was added to the US “Entity List,” cutting it off from key suppliers and US technologies. That move effectively pushed Huawei out of the global smartphone market, as it lost access to advanced chips from suppliers like TSMC and Samsung.

    In response, Huawei ramped up development of its own chips in partnership with Chinese state-owned semiconductor maker SMIC. By 2024 and 2025, the company began mass-delivering the Ascend 910C chips to domestic clients, signaling Huawei’s comeback in the AI sector and posing a serious challenge to Nvidia and Apple’s dominance in China.

    In January 2025, the US tightened the screws further, expanding its restrictions on AI chip exports to China and requiring strict licenses for any tech transfers. China countered by launching AI systems like DeepSeek—initially trained on Nvidia hardware but now optimized to run on Huawei’s Ascend chips. DeepSeek quickly stood out for its low cost and high performance, emerging as a competitive alternative to Western models.

    The new Commerce Department alert is explicit: any company, in any country, using Huawei’s Ascend chips could face accusations of violating US export controls. That includes Chinese firms using domestically designed and manufactured chips inside China’s own borders.

    Even more extreme, the US is now threatening to sanction companies that use Chinese AI models—like DeepSeek, Qwen, or InternLM—even if those models are run on Nvidia chips made in America. The stated goal is to prevent “adversaries” from accessing US technology, but in practice, the measure suffocates the digital sovereignty of countries without domestic AI ecosystems.

    Penalties for violations could include trade bans, exclusion from the global financial system, loss of access to essential software, and even arrest of executives traveling through US-allied countries.

    Experts like Bill Gates have warned this strategy is likely to backfire, accelerating the development of alternative technologies outside the US orbit. For China and other nations, the only viable response is to double down on building independent tech and financial ecosystems.

    As Jonh Pang from Multipolar Peace put it:

    “Anyone, anywhere, using Huawei Ascend chips can be prosecuted for violating US export controls. A Chinese company using a 100% China-designed and China-made chip, inside China, would still be in violation. But if you use Nvidia chips to run a Chinese AI model, you’re also in trouble. The future under ‘American AI leadership’ is ChatGPT on Nvidia. Monopoly by decree.”

    Timeline of key events:

    • May 2019: Huawei added to US Entity List.
    • 2024–2025: Huawei launches and distributes Ascend 910C chips at scale.
    • January 2025: New US restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China.
    • May 13, 2025: Global alert issued on use of Huawei’s Ascend chips.

    This tightening of US rules represents an unprecedented move in extraterritorial enforcement, with direct impacts on other nations’ digital sovereignty and the global tech market. What began as a race for innovation has now escalated into an open battle for technological sovereignty—and the US message is unambiguous: obey or be punished.

    Sources:

    – US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS)
    – Comments by Jonh Pang and Arnaud Bertrand
    – Coverage by Reuters, Financial Times, and Nikkei Asia on May 2025 sanctions
    – Bloomberg interview with Bill Gates (2025)

  • The first major BRICS event arrives in Rio on May 28!

    The first major BRICS event arrives in Rio on May 28!

    Meeting of Municipalities on May 28th anticipates debates of the July summit.

    Amid a global landscape of rapid and intense transformations in trade and geopolitical dynamics, Rio de Janeiro is set to host the BRICS International Forum of Municipalities next week. The event, scheduled for May 28, will precede the highly anticipated BRICS summit taking place in July, also in the iconic city.

    Following the United States’ tariff hikes, which disrupted the global trade order and compelled countries across all continents to rethink their commercial and diplomatic strategies, the BRICS bloc has emerged with unprecedented visibility on the world stage. The recent visit of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to China and Russia, accompanied by a substantial delegation of ministers and business leaders, has only heightened expectations for the series of meetings Brazil is set to host.

    “The BRICS International Forum of Municipalities is a platform for communication and business, promoting the exchange of experiences, ideas, and opportunities among representatives of regional and municipal governments, as well as the business and investment communities from BRICS countries,” explains the official document of the event. It also notes that the forum has been part of the official annual agenda of the bloc’s presiding countries since 2020.

    Municipalities as protagonists

    The concept of “BRICS municipalities,” widely discussed in Russia, is gaining traction in Brazil with this event. The initiative enables Brazilian cities—particularly Rio de Janeiro—to engage directly with investors and municipal governments in BRICS member countries, bypassing the need for federal mediation.

    Eduardo Paes, mayor of Rio de Janeiro and president of the National Front of Mayors, leads the local organizing committee. “Our goal is to strengthen ties among BRICS countries through a city-centric approach,” states the event’s preparatory document.

    The event is expected to draw over 700 participants, including 150 mayors from BRICS countries, 150 Brazilian mayors, and 150 representatives from investment funds, financial institutions, and business associations. This gathering represents a unique opportunity to forge partnerships that could lead to direct investments, job creation, and economic growth for Brazilian municipalities.

    Strategic themes under debate

    The agenda includes critical topics for municipal development, such as the future of smart cities, public safety management, urban data integration, urban renewal through public-private partnerships, tourism and regional integration, sustainable development, and food security.

    A key highlight will be the session on municipal infrastructure, which will explore project planning, capital raising, operations, and funding opportunities—an especially pertinent issue for Brazilian cities facing fiscal constraints in executing major structural projects.

    The conclusions drawn from the meeting will be compiled into an official statement to be submitted to the BRICS presidential summit, scheduled for July 6–7, also in Rio. This linkage underscores the strategic relevance of the municipal forum as groundwork for high-level diplomatic discussions.

    July Summit: High Expectations

    The BRICS summit in July, set to take place at the Museum of Modern Art (MAM) in Rio de Janeiro, has already confirmed the presence of Chinese President Xi Jinping, alongside leaders of other member states. The summit is expected to welcome around 4,000 participants, including heads of state and delegations from more than 40 nations.

    Brazil’s decision to host these gatherings comes at a moment of shifting global alliances. As protectionist policies intensify in traditional economies and tensions rise between Western and Eastern powers, the BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has emerged as a counterweight promoting a multipolar international system.

    The bloc’s recent expansion—with the inclusion of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—has further elevated its economic and geopolitical stature. Collectively, BRICS countries now account for over 40% of the global population and roughly a quarter of the world’s GDP.

    Opportunities for Brazil

    For Brazil, currently holding the rotating presidency of the bloc, these events provide a chance to assert itself as a global mediator and to attract direct investments into its municipalities. The municipal diplomacy strategy, to be tested at next week’s forum, could open avenues for partnerships traditionally brokered at the federal level.

    “This special edition allows us to address key topics for the upcoming BRICS summit in July,” notes the preparatory document for the municipal meeting, emphasizing the strategic alignment between the two events.

    To support the logistics and ensure security during the July summit, the Rio City Hall has declared a municipal holiday on Monday, July 7, the second day of the event.

    This is a particularly timely opportunity for Brazil, which is actively working to diversify its trade relations and attract investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology. Closer engagement with powerful emerging economies like China and India may offer alternatives to traditional Western partnerships, especially in today’s volatile global trade environment.

    All eyes will be on Rio de Janeiro in the coming weeks to observe how Brazil navigates these critical diplomatic events and what concrete outcomes may emerge for the nation’s economic and municipal development.

    ***

    LEARN MORE ABOUT THE EVENT
    BRICS INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF MUNICIPALITIES 2025: BRAZIL
    Date: May 28, 2025
    Time: 9:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
    Location: EXPOMAG – Rio de Janeiro

    PROGRAM

    MAIN AUDITORIUM
    9:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m.: Official Opening – Opening ceremony marking the start of a new cooperation agenda between BRICS+ territories
    6:00 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.: Official Closing – Reflections on the event and reading of the Forum Declaration for submission to the presidential summit

    SESSION ROOM 1
    12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.: The Future of Smart Cities in BRICS+: Smart surveillance, public security management, and urban data integration
    2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.: Proptechs, PPPs, and the Future of Urban Requalification
    4:00 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.: Tourism and Regional Integration – Building connections between BRICS+ regions

    SESSION ROOM 2
    12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.: Sustainable Development in BRICS+ Cities: Food security and ESG
    2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.: Partners Session
    4:00 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.: Dialogue of Tomorrow’s Leaders for the Sustainable Development of BRICS – Youth Parliamentarians’ Perspectives

    SESSION ROOM 3
    12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.: Development of Municipal Infrastructure – Design, fundraising, and operations. Funding opportunities
    2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.: Partners Session – Social Development
    4:00 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.: Partners Session – Energy

    EXPECTED AUDIENCE
    Total expected attendance: Approximately 400 people
    150 BRICS Mayors
    150 Brazilian Mayors
    150 Representatives from Investment Funds, Financial Institutions, and Investment Agencies
    Business delegations
    Influencers, media, and public figures

    CONTACT
    Email (Brazil): brazil@imbrics.moscow
    Phone: +55 31 98282-1342 (Wagner Pereira – Sponsorship Packages)
    Official website: imbrics.moscow