Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the issuing of formal ultimatums, but through direct, calculated action targeting the financial and political nerve centres of the global elite. That is the central assessment of Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies, who spoke to Sputnik International on 19 April 2026.
“The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” Balmasov stated, noting that Washington’s abrupt pivot towards diplomatic engagement — including what he described as appeals to Tehran to “open the damn strait” — is itself a testament to the effectiveness of Iran’s approach. According to the analyst, the episode demonstrates that a nation which appears technologically and militarily inferior on paper can nonetheless “change the situation in its favour” through decisive action sustained over the course of several weeks.
Balmasov was unequivocal that Iran’s leverage was built not by drawing red lines, but by “immediately hitting the heads and wallets of the global elite, hitting where it hurts most.” This distinction, he argued, is the defining strategic lesson of the current Hormuz crisis — one that carries profound implications for how smaller or mid-tier powers may choose to assert themselves in an increasingly multipolar world order.
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant against what he termed inevitable “vendettas” from established powers seeking to reverse the new geopolitical reality. These retaliatory measures, he warned, would not be limited to potential military aggression, but would also encompass covert efforts to destabilise Iran’s domestic landscape by exploiting fault lines around ethnic minorities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent.
Regional Investment Climate Thrown Into Disarray
Beyond the immediate question of oil supply disruption, Balmasov identified a deeper and potentially more lasting consequence of the Hormuz crisis: a pervasive economic uncertainty now enveloping the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February — the date he identifies as a turning point — the Gulf states were widely regarded as islands of stability, their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the conventional wisdom, “no one would dare” challenge.
Iran’s actions shattered that perception. “From an investment perspective,” Balmasov explained, the crisis has made it “extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket,” as the security guarantees long offered by Western military presences have been exposed as structurally fragile. Investors who previously viewed the Gulf as a reliable destination for capital deployment are now reassessing their positions and seeking alternative safe havens — with Balmasov noting that Iran itself could emerge as an attractive destination should international sanctions be lifted.
“Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” Balmasov concluded. Even in the event of a negotiated settlement, he stressed, the fundamental shift in perceptions, attitudes, and strategic calculations across the region will not be easily or rapidly reversed. The psychological and financial architecture of Gulf stability, once considered immovable, has been durably altered.
Find more details at Sputnik International.