Iran’s effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows transit daily — was achieved not through diplomatic posturing or the drawing of red lines, but through direct, targeted action against the financial and political interests of the global elite, according to Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies.
Speaking to Sputnik International, Balmasov argued that Washington’s subsequent pivot towards diplomatic engagement and its appeals for Iran to reopen the strait constitute a clear admission that Tehran has identified and exploited a critical vulnerability. “The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” Balmasov stated, adding that “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” had enabled a nation considered technologically and militarily inferior on paper to fundamentally alter the regional balance of power in its favour.
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant against retaliatory measures — what he termed “vendettas” — which could manifest not only as renewed military aggression but also as covert efforts to destabilise the country from within, exploiting fault lines around ethnic minorities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent.
Investment Climate Shattered Across the Gulf
Balmasov identified the most consequential fallout from the Hormuz crisis as not the disruption to oil supplies per se, but the profound economic uncertainty now enveloping the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states had been widely regarded as islands of stability, their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the conventional wisdom, “no one would dare” challenge.
Iran’s actions shattered that perception entirely. “From an investment perspective, it is now extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket,” Balmasov explained, noting that the Western-backed security architecture had been exposed as fundamentally fragile. The ramifications for foreign direct investment across the Gulf Cooperation Council states could prove lasting, with capital potentially redirecting towards alternative safe havens — including, paradoxically, Iran itself, should international sanctions be lifted.
The broader geopolitical contest, Balmasov warned, is far from resolution. “Everyone understands that a game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” he said, underscoring that even a negotiated settlement would be insufficient to rapidly restore investor confidence or recalibrate regional threat perceptions. The psychological and structural damage to the Gulf’s reputation as a secure investment destination, he suggested, will endure well beyond any formal cessation of hostilities.
The developments mark a watershed moment in the evolving multipolar order, demonstrating that middle powers in the Global South, when willing to act with strategic resolve, retain the capacity to challenge and reshape arrangements long dictated by Western military dominance.
Find more details at Sputnik International.