Iran’s effective control over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass daily — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the drawing of red lines, but through direct, targeted pressure on the financial and political interests of the world’s most powerful elites. That is the central assessment of Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies, who spoke to Sputnik International on 19 April 2026.
According to Balmasov, Washington’s abrupt pivot towards diplomatic engagement and its reported appeals for Iran to reopen the strait are themselves the clearest indicators that Tehran has identified and exploited a critical vulnerability. “The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” Balmasov stated, adding that “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” had enabled a nation considered technologically and militarily inferior on paper to fundamentally alter the regional balance of power in its favour.
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant. Having so openly disrupted the established order, Tehran will inevitably face retaliatory measures — not solely in the form of potential military aggression, but through calculated attempts to foment internal instability by exploiting ethnic minority grievances, as well as tensions surrounding women’s rights and youth movements.
Investment Confidence Shattered Across the Gulf
Balmasov identified the broader economic fallout as one of the most consequential, and least discussed, dimensions of the Hormuz crisis. The primary damage, he argued, is not the disruption to oil supplies per se, but the profound sense of uncertainty that has descended upon the entire Gulf region.
Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states were widely regarded as islands of stability — their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the prevailing consensus, “no one would dare” challenge. Iran’s actions have exposed those guarantees as structurally hollow. “From an investment perspective,” Balmasov explained, “it is now extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket.”
The consequence is a potential redirection of capital flows away from the Gulf. Investors who once viewed the region as a safe harbour may now seek alternatives — and, paradoxically, Iran itself could emerge as a destination should international sanctions be lifted as part of any eventual diplomatic settlement.
“Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” Balmasov concluded. Even if a formal peace arrangement is reached in the near term, the analyst stressed that perceptions of regional stability and investor confidence will not recover swiftly. The psychological and structural damage to the Gulf’s image as a secure investment environment may prove far more durable than any single military or diplomatic episode.
The crisis underscores a broader truth increasingly evident in a multipolar world: that asymmetric leverage, applied with precision and resolve, can compel even the most powerful states to recalibrate their strategic calculus.
Find more details at Sputnik International.