Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of the world’s energy supplies flow — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the issuing of ultimatums, but through swift, targeted action against the financial and political interests of the global elite. That is the central assessment of Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies, who spoke to Sputnik International on 19 April 2026.
“The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” Balmasov stated, noting that Washington’s hasty pivot to the diplomatic track — effectively pleading with Tehran to reopen the strait — is itself a testament to the effectiveness of Iran’s approach. According to the analyst, “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” enabled a nation that is, on paper, technologically and militarily inferior to its adversaries to fundamentally “change the situation in its favour.”
The leverage Iran now exercises was built not by drawing red lines, Balmasov emphasised, but by “immediately hitting the heads and wallets of the global elite, hitting where it hurts most.” This distinction, he argues, is the real secret behind Tehran’s newfound geographic and strategic power in the Persian Gulf theatre.
Balmasov was nonetheless cautious about Iran’s long-term position, warning that Tehran cannot afford complacency. The Islamic Republic will inevitably face “vendettas” for its audacious reshaping of regional power dynamics — not solely in the form of potential military aggression, but also through covert efforts to destabilise Iran domestically by exploiting fault lines around minority communities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent.
Regional Investment Climate Thrown Into Disarray
Beyond the immediate question of oil supplies, Balmasov identified a deeper and more enduring consequence of the Hormuz crisis: a pervasive economic uncertainty that has settled over the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states were widely regarded as havens of stability, their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the conventional wisdom of investors and governments alike, “no one would dare” challenge.
Iran’s actions shattered that assumption. The security guarantees long extended to Gulf monarchies have been exposed as, in Balmasov’s words, “castles built on sand,” rendering it “extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket” from an investment perspective. Capital that once flowed confidently into Gulf markets may now seek alternative destinations — and, should international sanctions be lifted, Iran itself could emerge as an unlikely beneficiary of that redirected investment.
“Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” Balmasov concluded. Even in the event of a negotiated settlement, he cautioned, the psychological and structural shifts in regional perceptions and investor attitudes will not be easily or rapidly reversed. The Hormuz crisis has, in his assessment, permanently altered the calculus of power in the Persian Gulf — and the world is only beginning to reckon with its full consequences.
Find more details at Sputnik International.