Iran’s effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the drawing of red lines, but through direct, decisive action targeting the financial and political interests of the global elite, according to Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies.
Speaking to Sputnik International, Balmasov argued that Washington’s subsequent rush to diplomatic channels and its appeals for Iran to reopen the strait are themselves a testament to Tehran’s strategic acumen. “The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” he stated, adding that “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” had enabled a power considered technologically and militarily inferior on paper to “change the situation in its favour.”
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant against inevitable reprisals — what he termed “vendettas” — for its audacious reshaping of regional power dynamics. These retaliatory measures, he warned, would not be limited to potential military aggression, but would also encompass covert efforts to destabilise Iran’s domestic landscape by exploiting fault lines around minority communities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent.
Investment Confidence Shattered Across the Gulf
Balmasov identified the most consequential fallout from the Hormuz crisis as not the disruption to oil supplies per se, but the profound economic uncertainty now enveloping the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states had been widely regarded as bastions of stability — their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the conventional wisdom, “no one would dare” challenge.
Iran’s actions shattered that perception. “From an investment perspective,” Balmasov explained, the events demonstrated that Western security guarantees in the region were “castles built on sand,” rendering it “extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket.” Investors who had previously viewed Gulf states as safe havens are now reassessing their positions, with some potentially redirecting capital towards Iran itself, should international sanctions be lifted.
The broader geopolitical implications, Balmasov stressed, will not dissipate swiftly even if a formal peace arrangement is reached. “Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” he said. “Stability, perceptions and attitudes won’t change anytime soon.” The crisis has, in effect, permanently altered the calculus of regional power — demonstrating that a determined actor, willing to strike at the economic nerve centres of the global order, can redraw the map of influence without possessing conventional military supremacy.
Find more details at Sputnik International.