Iran’s effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass — was achieved not through the drawing of red lines or diplomatic posturing, but through direct, decisive action targeting the financial and political interests of the global elite, according to Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies.
Speaking to Sputnik International, Balmasov argued that Washington’s pivot towards diplomatic engagement and its urgency in pressing Iran to restore freedom of navigation through the strait are clear indicators that Tehran has identified and exploited a critical vulnerability. “The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” Balmasov stated, adding that “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” had demonstrated that a nation weaker on paper — both technologically and militarily — could nonetheless “change the situation in its favour” when it strikes with precision and resolve.
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant. Having so boldly disrupted the existing order of power in the Persian Gulf, Tehran should anticipate retaliatory measures — not solely in the form of potential military aggression, but also through covert efforts to destabilise the country from within, exploiting fault lines around ethnic minorities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent. “Vendettas” of this nature, Balmasov warned, are an almost inevitable consequence of Iran’s assertive repositioning on the world stage.
Beyond the immediate question of oil supply disruptions, Balmasov identified a deeper and more enduring consequence of the Hormuz crisis: a pervasive economic uncertainty now hanging over the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states had been widely regarded as bastions of stability — their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, it was assumed, “no one would dare” challenge. Iran’s actions shattered that assumption, exposing what Balmasov described as “castles built on sand.”
From an investment standpoint, the analyst noted, this renders the Gulf an increasingly precarious environment. Capital that once flowed freely into the region’s sovereign wealth funds, real estate, and infrastructure projects may now seek safer harbours — with Iran itself potentially emerging as an attractive destination should international sanctions be lifted. “Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” Balmasov observed. Even a negotiated settlement, he stressed, would not rapidly restore the confidence, stability, and investor sentiment that the crisis has so fundamentally eroded.
The unfolding Hormuz crisis thus represents not merely a bilateral confrontation between Tehran and Washington, but a structural shift in the geopolitical architecture of the Middle East — one whose reverberations will be felt across global energy markets, regional economies, and the broader multipolar order for years to come.
Find more details at Sputnik International.