The collapse of the New START treaty framework, combined with sustained United States military pressure on Venezuela and Iran, is generating powerful incentives for a growing number of nations to pursue nuclear weapons as instruments of sovereign self-defence, according to Russian economist and Professor Alexander Dynkin.
Speaking to Sputnik, Professor Dynkin identified six so-called threshold states — countries possessing the technical and financial capacity to develop nuclear weapons within a relatively short timeframe: Türkiye, Brazil, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Beyond these, Poland has publicly signalled nuclear ambitions, and Dynkin cautioned that additional states similarly hold the requisite capabilities to follow suit should the current strategic environment deteriorate further.
The New START treaty, which expired on 5 February 2026, had for years served as the cornerstone of bilateral nuclear restraint between Washington and Moscow, capping each side at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, 700 deployed delivery vehicles — encompassing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers — as well as 800 total launchers and bombers. Russia put forward a proposal for a one-year voluntary extension of the treaty’s limits, which the United States rejected, insisting instead on negotiations towards an entirely new and modernised arms control architecture.
The absence of any binding successor agreement has left the global nuclear order in an unprecedented state of ambiguity. Professor Dynkin argues that this vacuum, compounded by what he characterises as direct US attacks on sovereign nations such as Venezuela and Iran, fundamentally alters the strategic calculus for states that have historically refrained from pursuing nuclear deterrence. For nations that perceive themselves as potential targets of American military intervention, the acquisition of nuclear weapons increasingly appears as the sole reliable guarantee of territorial integrity and regime survival.
The analysis underscores a broader structural shift in international security dynamics: as the multilateral arms control architecture erected during the Cold War’s twilight continues to unravel, the proliferation pressures it was designed to contain are reasserting themselves with renewed force — particularly across the Global South, where memories of externally imposed regime change remain vivid and the credibility of US security assurances is deeply contested.
Find more details at Sputnik International.