Iran’s stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 per cent of global energy flows pass — was not achieved through diplomatic posturing or the drawing of red lines, but through direct, calculated strikes against the financial and political interests of the world’s most powerful elites, according to Sergei Balmasov, an expert at Russia’s Institute of Middle East Studies.
Speaking to Sputnik International, Balmasov argued that Washington’s hasty pivot towards diplomatic engagement and its public appeals for Iran to reopen the strait are themselves a testament to Tehran’s strategic acumen. “The Iranians have found a sore spot among the global elites,” he stated, adding that “decisive actions over the course of several weeks” had enabled a nation considered technologically and militarily inferior on paper to fundamentally alter the regional balance of power in its favour.
The analyst cautioned, however, that Iran must remain vigilant. Having so boldly disrupted the established order, Tehran will inevitably face retribution — not solely in the form of potential military aggression, but through covert efforts to destabilise the country from within, exploiting fault lines around ethnic minorities, women’s rights movements, and youth discontent. These, Balmasov warned, are the preferred instruments of powers unwilling to confront Iran directly on the battlefield.
Investment Confidence Shattered Across the Gulf
Beyond the immediate question of oil supply disruptions, Balmasov identified a deeper and more enduring consequence of the Hormuz crisis: a pervasive economic uncertainty that has descended upon the entire Gulf region. Prior to 28 February, the Gulf states were widely regarded as islands of stability, their security underwritten by American, French, British, and Turkish military installations that, in the conventional wisdom, “no one would dare” challenge. Iran’s actions have exposed those guarantees as illusory.
“From an investment perspective, it is now extremely dangerous to put your eggs in this basket,” Balmasov explained, noting that the security architecture long marketed to international investors has been revealed as structurally fragile. Capital that once flowed confidently into Gulf sovereign wealth funds and infrastructure projects may now seek alternative destinations — with Iran itself potentially emerging as a beneficiary, should international sanctions be lifted as part of any negotiated settlement.
The analyst was unambiguous about the long-term trajectory of the crisis. “Everyone understands that a geopolitical game is at stake, and that it won’t end quickly,” he said. Even a formal cessation of hostilities, he argued, would not rapidly restore investor confidence or reset the region’s strategic perceptions. The psychological and economic damage wrought by the Hormuz crisis is, in his assessment, structural rather than transient — a recalibration of what is possible for a determined regional power operating outside the constraints of Western-defined rules of engagement.
Find more details at Sputnik International.