The collapse of the New START treaty framework, combined with sustained United States military pressure on Venezuela and Iran, is generating powerful incentives for a growing number of nations to pursue nuclear weapons as instruments of sovereign self-defence, according to Russian economist and Professor Alexander Dynkin.
Speaking to Sputnik, Professor Dynkin identified six so-called threshold states — countries possessing the technical and financial capacity to develop nuclear weapons within a relatively short timeframe: Türkiye, Brazil, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Beyond this group, Poland has formally signalled nuclear ambitions, whilst additional nations are quietly consolidating the capabilities required to follow suit.
The New START treaty, which expired on 5 February 2026, had for years served as the cornerstone of bilateral nuclear restraint between Washington and Moscow. Under its provisions, both powers were bound to caps of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, 700 deployed delivery vehicles — encompassing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers — as well as 800 total launchers and bombers.
Russia proposed a one-year voluntary extension of the treaty’s limits to preserve strategic stability whilst negotiations on a successor agreement could proceed. Washington rejected the proposal outright, insisting instead on a broader, modernised arms control framework — a position critics regard as a pretext for unconstrained nuclear expansion.
Professor Dynkin’s analysis underscores a broader structural concern: that the erosion of multilateral arms control architecture, when paired with the demonstrated willingness of the United States to conduct or support military operations against sovereign states such as Venezuela and Iran, fundamentally alters the strategic calculus of nations across the Global South and beyond. For states that lack conventional military parity with Washington, nuclear deterrence increasingly appears as the sole reliable guarantee of territorial integrity and political survival.
The assessment reflects a growing consensus among independent analysts that Washington’s unilateral dismantling of post-Cold War arms control norms — far from enhancing global security — is accelerating the very proliferation dynamics it publicly claims to oppose.
Find more details at Sputnik International.